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Iwo Baraniewski vs. Junior Tafa flies under the radar as one of the most promising fights on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim. It’s a wonder why the UFC chooses to put some of its most fan-pleasing fighters inside the tepid APEX arena—but oh well.
Baraniewski (8-0 MMA) faces Tafa (7-5 MMA) in the main card opener. Both fighters are strikers, and both have a 100% finishing rate. They have 13 knockouts between them, 11 in the first round, and two submissions coming from Baraniewski’s side.
Notable facts about both: Baraniewski is a Judo Black Belt and went 17-3 as an MMA amateur. Tafa has a 23-5 professional kickboxing record, where he fought in GLORY against some relatively big names like Jamal Ben Saddik and Guto Inocente.
Baraniewski vs. Tafa prediction
As long as this fight stays on the feet, it is a coinflip match. Baraniewski is a moderate favourite coming in, but gives up four inches to a taller striking specialist. The Polish scrapper loves a dogfight, but he can be hurt, as we saw against Ibo Aslan at UFC 323.
As far as I’m concerned, Tafa’s only chances come on the feet, which is why we should anticipate some grappling from Baraniewski. He’ll likely bullrush Tafa from the opening bell, but the cleanest path to victory comes on the ground. Tafa’s core weakness in the UFC has been cardio and grappling. He has major holes in his ground game, the likes that a world-class Judoka should be able to exploit.
As with my Allen vs Shahbazyan prediction, all signs point to one of two results: Baraniewski by finish, or Tafa by finish. My outright pick would be Baraniewski, but I would slide a cheeky bet on submission at plus odds.
Best bets for Baraniewski vs. Tafa
Per DraftKings, Baraniewski is a -310 favourite, with Tafa as a +250 underdog. Full fight odds haven’t been released yet, but these are Mat’s best bets, from safest to riskiest.
| Winner | Method |
|---|---|
| Fight Overall | Ends by FINISH (KO/SUB) |
| Fight Overall | Ends in under 1.5 Rounds |
| Baraniewski | By KO/TKO or SUB |
| Tafa | By KO/TKO |
| Fight Overall | Ends by FINISH + Under 1.5 Rounds |
| Baraniewski | By SUB (only on plus odds) |
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