Fighters Weekly has collated UFC Fight data from ESPN to gauge who is most likely to win or lose this weekend at UFC Vegas 124.
Lock of The Night: Henrique to Beat Parsons
Three key metrics lead Fighters Weekly to a 60:40 pick on Jonny Parsons to lose to Jose Souza.
Parsons is 10 years older than Henrique, and fighters with this much age on their opponents only win roughly 3 times out of 10 (in 496 fights).
In 2026, fighters who meet this criteria have only won 29% of the time.
Additionally, Henrique has a 10-inch reach advantage. In 175 eligible fights, fighters with this much reach advantage won roughly 70% of the time.
We can also consider Parsons’ considerable layoff. He hasn’t fought in over three years, and the stats say he’ll come in at a slight disadvantage. In welterweight fights, fighters who take a hiatus this long have historically not won.
Grant Battling Age Against Smith
Main card fighter Davey Grant is facing Elijah Smith. A win for Grant would continue his streak as the second-oldest fighter to win a bantamweight fight in the UFC.
At 16 years older than Smith, Grant has a 28% chance of pulling off the win, based on historical fights. (59 of 210 fighters who meet this criteria won eligible fights)
In bantamweight fights where one fighter is 10+ years older than their opponent, the older fighter has only won 19% of the time.
What’s on the line at UFC Vegas 124?
- Karine Silva, with a first-round finish: sets the record for the most first-round finishes in UFC women’s flyweight history (now 2: Jessica Andrade)
- Tatiana Suarez, with a finish: ties the record for the most finishes in UFC women’s strawweight history, level with Jessica Andrade.
- Tatiana Suarez, with a submission: ties the record for the most submission wins in UFC women’s strawweight history, level with Mackenzie Dern.