The odds are heavily stacked against Renato Moicano in his main event bout with Tom Nolan on October 31 at UFC Vegas.
Moicano-Nolan isn’t a matchup anyone expected, but it makes sense given the rankings. Former title challenger Moicano holds the #12 spot, giving #14 Nolan a good shot at the lightweight top ten with an emphatic win.
Older fighters (10+ years) have a 31% win rate in UFC fights
UFC stats suggest this could be a passing-of-the-torch fight, if historical trends are anything to go by. Moicano, 37, is over ten years older than Nolan, 26. In UFC fights where one fighter is 10+ years older than their foe, the younger fighter wins 69% of the time (across all divisions in UFC history).
If we limit it to the lightweight division, the win rate drops to just 30% for the geriatric fighters.
However, when the data is further limited to 2026 only, lightweight fighters who are 10+ years older than their opponent have won 50% of their matchups (six fights total). But across all divisions this year, the win rate is even worse: older fighters are losing 75% of their fights.
Less hope for Renato Moicano as he explores free agency
To make matters worse, Moicano’s edge in UFC fights also comes at a slight disadvantage. He has 14 fights more than Nolan, and fighters with 8+ more fights than their opponents won 46% of the time (805 of 1,751 fights).
‘Money’ Moicano is eyeing free agency, with three fights left on his UFC contract, including the one against Nolan.
“. . . In Brazil, I’m getting big, like getting popular. So, who knows? Maybe boxing, influencing, something like that,” Moicano told MMA Fighting. “Doing all this stuff other than MMA. So, I’m not too worried. I’m not too worried.”